Hedge funds back off bets on China devaluation | Reuters

This time that has not happened; the market is clearly saying that this stability is temporary.

Hart said he still believes China will need to devalue.

“It would seem China would like to hold the line, for a while maybe. Commodity Futures Trading Commission and banks’ options desks showed large bets going on such options, betting on a fall in the yuan to 7.5-8 per dollar within the next year.

That has left in place chiefly “tail risk” funds like Mark Hart’s Texas-based Corriente Partners or Kyle Bass, who have suggested China would have to devalue the yuan by up to 50 percent to rebalance its economy.

“It’s still a very popular long but it is not at the same peak. They are still in.”

Hedge fund sales desks at four of Wall Street’s biggest banks told Reuters that many U.S. We’ve seen a lot more outflows, a lot of defending of the currency,” Hart told Wall Street pay video service www.RealVision.com. players had made money betting against China by the time Beijing took aggressive steps to prop up the currency in early January.

(Editing by Catherine Evans)

Whereas from September the six-month low-delta option fell from highs of 4.4 percent to 1.8 percent, this time it has retreated from 4.6 percent to just under 3 percent.

The one-year contract in the same periods for comparison went from 9.6 to 4.5 percent last year, and 10.7 to 7 percent. Since then it has recovered roughly half of that value.

“Ultimately for China it is a stay of execution.”

The big trade in December and January for hedge funds like Hart’s was the low-delta risk reversal, an option contract that only pays out in the event of a very sharp move away from current exchange rates.

Data from the U.S.

“There have been a couple of engineered short squeezes, which have primarily effected those who had a spread on or those who were short spot CNH.”

“After the August move subsided the forward points went lower, vols (implied volatility) went lower.

“There is a huge divergence between what happened then and what happened in the past month,” said Chris Morrison, Head of Strategy with Omni Macro Fund in London.

The yuan fell almost 7 percent in a steady depreciation in offshore markets that started in November and bottomed out at 6.75 yuan per dollar on Jan. 7.

Heavy official intervention, limits on some capital movement and a reduction in the amount of yuan available offshore prompted many players either to cut exposure or walk away from the trade by the Lunar New Year holiday last month, they said.. The more active FX guys who have been in and out of the spot, a lot of them were squeezed out in February.

Derivatives pricing for the yuan has fallen back to levels not seen since the end of November.

“There isn’t a hedge fund on the planet that did not have this trade on somehow but the peak of that positioning is past,” said the head of hedge fund sales with one of the six biggest currency trading banks in London. RETREAT

LONDON Two of the three types of hedge funds which bet heavily on a sharp devaluation of China’s yuan last year have backed off the trade, leaving only some ultra-bearish “Black Swan” investors holding long-term bets, fund managers and bankers said.

Even so, other bankers and fund managers note that the retreat in pricing on a yuan depreciation has been far less pronounced than it was after Beijing tried and then retreated on a sharp one-off devaluation last August. Then you have the buy and hold, tail-risk sorts of investors

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“How to Choose the Right Sportsbook!”

Often these website owners know nothing about betting, do not hold accounts with the sportsbooks they are advertising and have not researched the companies they are involved with.

The UK has a number of established books including William Hill, Ladbrokes, Coral, and Victor Chandler. It is, therefore, critical that those US customers put in the research before signing up.

So you have decided to start betting online – or maybe you just want to find a new trustworthy sportsbook – what do you need to look out for?

This article was posted on October 22, 2004

Well I am in a position to speak from some experience – I did at one time hold accounts with about sixty bookmakers in Europe, UK, Australia and offshore – the latter catering mainly to the US market. Options should be available that are ‘free’ or where the sportsbook absorbs the charges.

<< Back to “Recreation And Sports” Index

So what do you look for:

You are keeping your money in an account online. The offshore books with whom I work are top grade but it is in the offshore environment that problems occasionally occur. Therefore you should think of the sportsbook you are considering as a bank – a place that you intend to keep funds long term.

It is not that easy finding a reputable sportsbook – partly because the web is populated by website owners who will sing the praises of a sportsbook or casino simply because they earn revenue from signing up customers via an affiliate program. Sometimes this means added solidity.

What are the deposit and withdrawal options and the associated charges. But ask yourself ; “how easy is it to get access to my money and how much does it cost?”

I would say that US bettors are at most risk since they are generally forced to bet at offshore sportsbooks due to legality issues.

“How to Choose the Right Sportsbook!”

 by: Daniel B. I have had at least three online sportsbooks go broke on me – luckily my losses were kept to a few thousand dollars – that may sound a lot but it could have been a lot worse.

Happy betting! . These vary quite a bit from book to book.

Find out if the sportsbook is part of a larger group of companies. I also like SportingBet (www.SBSportsbook.com) who take US customers and cater for global sports.

Read press articles as opposed to reviews – reviews are usually written by the sportsbook’s marketing team.

Test run the software by joining and playing for free – most sportsbooks offer this facility.

Find out if your funds are insured or separated in ESCROW accounts so that if the sportsbook company goes under – your funds are still safe.

Find out if the sportsbook is independently audited.

How long has the operation been online – three to four years is usually a good marker as a minimum.

Test out the customer services to see if they meet your standards or the standards they promise you.

If you know about betting already, then check some of their odds and lines – are they in keeping with what you would expect? Some less scrupulous sportsbooks offer very attractive prices to lure unsuspecting bettors. King

If you have already have an account with a sportsbook watch out for lapses in customer service and slowness of payment – these can be signs that the company could be in trouble.

Not all the above are critical – but help towards finding a secure book

Trump nomination odds wane in online betting, third party run bets up | Reuters

major-party convention was in 1952 when Democrats nominated Illinois Governor Adlai Stevenson on the third ballot. PredictIt is operated by Victoria University in New Zealand. 23. PredictIt put the chances of him running as an independent at 17 percent on Friday, from 14 percent on Thursday and 10 percent a week ago.

Chances of Trump claiming the Republican mantle have fallen hard to 69 percent after cresting at 86 percent this week following his winning seven of 11 states in Super Tuesday voting, according to PredictWise, which aggregates betting on multiple venues into an implied probability.

The last brokered U.S. senator from Texas, were 9-to-1 from 12-to-1 earlier this week.

Chances for a brokered convention closed at 40 percent on Thursday on record volume in betting on PredictIt after starting the week at 23 percent.

Odds on Rubio, a U.S. Trump’s chances of trouncing Clinton sank to 27 percent on Friday from 39 percent in late February. senator from Florida, narrowed to 4-to-1 from 5-to-1 on Tuesday, and odds for Cruz, a U.S. It was independently created by the Reuters editorial staff.

(Reporting by Dan Burns; Editing by Toni Reinhold)

Republican infighting is fueling betting that Republicans will have a so-called brokered convention, which occurs when no candidate wins a majority of delegates before the convention, or that Trump will run as a third-party candidate.

Intense squabbling among Republican candidates and efforts by establishment Republicans to block a Trump nomination at this summer’s Republican National Convention boosted bets that former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, the favorite for the Democratic nomination, would win the Nov. They were 39 percent early on Friday.

Chances that Trump would run as a third-party candidate have ticked higher, but it remains a long-shot in betting circles.

On PredictIt, a site aggregated into PredictWise probability, Trump’s chances were 70 percent early Friday, up slightly from late Thursday when they fell to 68 percent, their lowest since Feb. PaddyPower’s odds show Trump as a 2-to-5 favorite compared with a 1-to-7 favorite right after Super Tuesday..

NEW YORK Donald Trump’s prospects of winning the Republican nomination for the White House have slid sharply in online wagering venues, and bets that Republicans could have a fractured convention or that Trump may run as a third-party candidate were increasing.

Clinton’s prospects of winning a head-to-head contest against Trump shot to above 60 percent earlier this week and stood at 57 percent on Friday, according to PredictIt. 1. Neither candidate won the presidential election.

Trump faces withering attacks from rivals Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio and from 2012 Republican nominee Mitt Romney, who labeled him a danger to the Republican party and the United States.

This article was funded in part by SAP. SAP had no editorial involvement in its creation or production.

The billionaire businessman is still the prohibitive favorite, but it was the steepest slide in his imputed chances since his second-place showing in the Iowa caucuses on Feb. The last brokered Republican convention was in 1948, when New York Governor Thomas Dewey won in three ballots. 8 general election.

Online wagering venues such as Ireland’s PaddyPower, which express candidates’ prospects as traditional sports-betting odds, show Trump losing luster as Rubio and Cruz gain steam

How To Master Sports Betting

Hopefully this kind of thinking will keep you grounded. You shouldn’t favor a team because they are the team your best friend supports. So do yourself a favor and swear off them. Thus when you are doing well, you will still be focused and when you aren’t doing so well you won’t be thinking that it’s the end of the world. So if you suffer a bad break along the way, just remember it goes with the territory. You want to know who trained and who didn’t. What is the point of drowning yourself in statistics and research for what you could just as easily decided with a flip of the coin? So you need to sift through it all and just take the morsels here and there which are really important and make a difference. You don’t want to lose money just because you weren’t on top of your game.

The most important thing is that you need to take emotion out of the equation. It doesn’t matter if it is pretty or not.

Information and doing your homework is important, but you don’t want to full into the trap of information overload. For instance, if you are pretty certain that a side is going to win and they are getting good odds for this than take this. You will be better off for doing so in the long run.

In the case of team sports, injuries are important. It is only going to place you in a difficult position and as much as you might think it won’t be, your decision making ability is going to be compromised. Also look into how sides perform the week after doing certain travel. On the flip side, you shouldn’t bet against a team because someone you don’t like roots for that team. It could provide great insight as to predicting what will occur.

Sports betting is an easy way to make a tough living. Because of this point, it is probably better if you steer clear from any matches involving the teams that you like. This means that when you place your bets you need to be thinking clearly and concisely. It’s all about accumulating winnings. Over time, you will learn what it should be that you should be paying attention to.. Anything less than this and it is going to be a disaster. If you are going to do it you need to do it properly and master it, it means you are completely organized and focused. You can’t let the highs and lows affect you too much.

Look for value bets. Upsets are always going to happen but see when it makes the most sense when to go for that and when not to. Travel is a factor such as when East Coast sides travel to the West Coast and vice versa. Business is business and you need to be concentrating on who is going to win regardless of who likes and who doesn’t like which team.

Speaking of the long run, this is what you should be focused on. The weather conditions also make a difference as they do in horse racing

The 10 Greatest Race Horses of All Time

Brilliant, precocious, altogether the greatest horse of the 1990s (only Cigar can rival him). His lone loss, ironically to a horse named Upset, came during his 2-year-old season in the 1919 but hardly mars an otherwise dominating career.

Secretariat – 16 wins from 21 starts. Only denied a Triple Crown by a poorly judged ride in the Belmont Stakes by Ron Franklin. Great fillies like Personal Ensign and Ruffian did not make the list simply because I don’t think that on their best day they could beat any of the horses on this list on their best days (see also my article about Rachel Alexandra, about whom I would say the same.) Without further ado, the 10 Greatest Race Horses of All Time:

Other Horse Racing Articles By This Author:

Honorable Mentions: Sunday Silence, Easy Goer, Buckpasser, Ghostzapper, Count Fleet, War Admiral, Seabiscuit, Damascus, Cigar, Personal Ensign, Ruffian, Risen Star, John Henry, Swaps. Twice named champion sprinter, and once Horse of the Year, he was among the best from 7 furlongs to 1 1/4 miles.

Miesque – 14 wins from 18 starts. Champion two and three-year old. His heart and intelligence combined with speed and stamina to make him one of the all time great champions.

Affirmed – 22 wins from 29 starts.

Seattle Slew – 14 wins from 17 starts. Perhaps not as consistent as others on this list, but his durability and willingness to take on all comers more than compensates.

Native Dancer – 21 wins from 22 starts.

. There’s fast, faster, and Dr. He might rank higher on this list if not for an unaccountably disastrous performance as the 2-1 favorite in the 1994 Kentucky Derby. Crushed Affirmed in their two meetings a Belmont Park in the fall of 1978.

Spectacular Bid – 26 wins from 30 starts. Fager – 18 wins from 22 starts. His Triple Crown battles with Alydar will never by forgotten. The only gelding on the list, “Mighty” Kelso, as he was inevitably described, was named Horse of the Year an incredible five times from 1960-1964, a feat that will surely never be matched. Only a narrow loss to Dark Star after a rough trip in the 1953 Kentucky Derby blemishes an otherwise perfect career

Dr. 15 of her 16 starts came in Group 1 or Grade 1 races, but her crowning achievement is surely her back to back victories in the Breeders Cup Mile, both in utterly dominant style.

Holy Bull – 13 wins from 16 starts. Those who argue that many non-American horses deserve inclusion will get no argument from me. Beat Spectacular Bid in their only meeting, but was beaten handily by Seattle Slew in their two races.

Needless to say, this list represents one man’s subjective opinions as to the greatest of all time, and the horses represented here are only those who have raced on American soil. His Kentucky Derby win, which came despite being rushed to the lead by Jean Cruguet after an awkward start, may be the greatest ever. The greatest of the great, his triple crown campaign, during which he set official track records at Churchill Downs and Belmont Park, and an unofficial track record at Pimlico, will never be exceeded or even matched. Pity poor Sham, an outstanding racehorse in his own right, who was a game second in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness before being annihilated with all the rest in Secretariat’s incomparable Belmont Stakes win, during which he set a world record for 12 furlongs that still stands to this day.

Man o’ War – 20 wins from 21 starts. A threat to break the track record every time he stepped on the racetrack, his astonishing 1:57.4 in the 1980 Strub still stands as the record for 10 furlongs at Santa Anita

Kelso – 39 wins from 63 starts. I’ve tried to include the very best of the best without regard to gender or racing surface. The only filly, the only foreign-bred, and the only turf horse on this list, which says something about her greatness. Fager. Undefeated as a 2-year-old, Triple Crown winner at 3. Man o’ War was the first great race horse to really capture the public’s imagination and raise horse racing in the public consciousness